Global Plastics Outlook: Economic Drivers, Environmental Impacts and Policy Options
About this book
Global Plastics Outlook: Economic Drivers, Environmental Impacts and Policy Options, published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2022, provides the most authoritative and comprehensive economic analysis of global plastic production, use, waste generation, and environmental leakage available. Combining a consistent global database with modelling scenarios to 2060, the Outlook establishes the quantitative foundation for international policy discussions on plastics governance — including the UN Environment Assembly resolution to develop a legally binding global plastics treaty. The Outlook's baseline scenario is striking in its implications: without additional policy action beyond current commitments, global plastic production is projected to almost triple from 460 million tonnes in 2019 to 1.2 billion tonnes by 2060.
Plastic waste generation would more than double to 1 billion tonnes per year, and plastic leakage to aquatic environments (rivers, lakes, and oceans) would increase from approximately 22 million tonnes per year to 44 million tonnes per year. This trajectory would make oceans uninhabitable for many marine species before the end of the century if modelling extrapolations hold. The current state of plastics is analysed through a material flow accounting framework.
Of the 460 million tonnes of plastics produced globally in 2019, approximately 6.1 million tonnes leaked to aquatic environments, 19 million tonnes were littered or inadequately disposed of in terrestrial environments, 49% were sent to landfill, 19% were incinerated, and only 9% were recycled (with a further 17% being informally recovered). The gap between the 9% recycling rate and the 17% open burning or incineration rate illustrates the economic and governance barriers to formal recycling. Three policy scenarios are modelled: sustainable production (design for recyclability, hazardous substance substitution), waste management improvement (extending formal collection and recycling), and behavioural change (demand reduction for single-use plastics).
The most ambitious combined scenario reduces annual plastic leakage by 90% by 2060 compared to baseline, but requires stringent and comprehensive policy action across all stages of the plastics value chain. The report examines the economics of plastics in detail: why virgin plastic production remains cheaper than recycled plastic in most commodity market conditions (due to cheap fossil feedstocks and unpriced externalities), the market structures of major polymer categories (polyethylene, polypropylene, PET, PVC), and the investment requirements for scaling up mechanical and chemical recycling capacity.