ITF Transport Outlook 2021
About this book
ITF Transport Outlook 2021, published by the International Transport Forum (ITF) at the OECD, provides a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of global transport demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and the policy interventions required to align the transport sector with Paris Agreement climate commitments. The 2021 edition is notable for integrating the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic into its scenario analysis, examining how the pandemic-induced shock to mobility may (or may not) represent a structural turning point for transport systems. The Outlook opens with a pre-pandemic baseline: transport was responsible for approximately 23% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2019, with road transport (passenger cars and freight trucks) accounting for approximately 75% of transport emissions.
Aviation contributed roughly 12% and maritime shipping approximately 11% of the transport sector total. Without policy action, transport emissions were projected to grow by 16% by 2050 relative to 2019, driven by growing vehicle fleets in Asia, Latin America, and Africa outpacing efficiency improvements. The pandemic analysis examines the 2020 transport shock: global passenger aviation fell by approximately 60% in 2020 compared to 2019; urban mass transit ridership fell by 25-50% in most cities; private car usage fell initially then recovered faster than other modes; and freight transport proved more resilient, falling only 6% before recovering to pre-pandemic levels by early 2021.
Projections for structural change — accelerated remote working reducing commuting demand, reduced business travel, migration from cities — are assessed as moderate in magnitude. Three decarbonisation scenarios model the policy pathways: a High Ambition scenario consistent with 1.5°C requires zero-emission passenger cars by 2040, complete decarbonisation of light commercial vehicles by 2045, zero-emission shipping from 2045, and aviation fuelled entirely by sustainable fuels by 2050. Achieving this requires massive upscaling of EV charging infrastructure, green hydrogen production, and sustainable aviation fuel capacity, alongside significant modal shift from aviation to high-speed rail on short-haul routes.
Urban mobility receives dedicated chapters on the impact of shared mobility services (ride-hailing, bike-sharing, scooter-sharing), congestion charging as a demand management tool, and the potential of autonomous vehicles to either reduce or increase total vehicle kilometres driven depending on governance frameworks.