World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway
About this book
World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway (2022) International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) en The World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in March 2022, is a comprehensive annual roadmap charting the transformation of global energy systems necessary to cap global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Published as the world was simultaneously grappling with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical disruption from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and mounting evidence of accelerating climate impacts, the 2022 edition carries particular urgency. It argues that the decade to 2030 is not merely important but definitively critical — the decisions and investments made before the end of this decade will largely determine whether the 1.5°C target remains achievable at all.
IRENA's core analytical framework is built around the 1.5°C Scenario (1.5-S), a pathway in which nearly all sectors of the global economy are decarbonized by mid-century. The report identifies six interlocking technological and systemic levers required to achieve this transformation: (1) the large-scale expansion of renewable electricity generation; (2) dramatic improvements in energy efficiency across all sectors; (3) deep electrification of end uses — including transport, heating, and industrial processes; (4) the scaled deployment of green hydrogen and its derivatives; (5) modern, sustainably managed bioenergy; and (6) residual use of carbon capture and storage for sectors that are hardest to abate. Together, these levers would deliver a reduction of nearly 37 gigatonnes of annual CO2-equivalent emissions by 2050 relative to the current trajectory.
The investment requirements outlined in the 2022 edition are staggering in scale. IRENA calculates that achieving the 1.5°C pathway requires annual investments of USD 5.7 trillion between now and 2030, scaling up to cumulative energy transition investments exceeding USD 115 trillion by 2050. Approximately USD 0.7 trillion per year currently directed toward fossil fuel supply and infrastructure must be redirected toward clean energy technologies.
The financing gap is not merely a question of total volume but of distribution: the report identifies a severe imbalance between where capital flows (predominantly developed economies) and where it is most urgently needed (developing and emerging economies, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Latin America). Renewable energy deployment is central to the 1.5°C pathway, but the report issues a stark warning: progress has been meaningful but entirely insufficient in pace. Global renewable power capacity additions must more than triple by 2030 compared to current levels.
Solar photovoltaics and wind power are positioned as the twin workhorses of the energy transition, requiring massive scale-up in manufacturing, installation, and grid integration. By 2030, the report projects that renewables must supply at least two-thirds of global electricity, rising toward nearly 90% by 2050. Energy efficiency is identified as the single largest contributor to emission reductions in the 1.5°C Scenario, often characterized as the first fuel of the energy transition.
The report calls for annual improvements in global energy intensity to roughly double compared to the historical average of the past two decades. This encompasses efficiency gains in buildings, industry, transportation, and appliances — representing both demand reduction and productive gains per unit of energy consumed. Electrification of end uses is treated as a structural transformation of equal importance to renewable supply expansion.
Electric vehicles must reach dominant market shares in road transport; heat pumps must replace fossil fuel-based heating systems in buildings; and industrial processes must shift from direct combustion to electrified alternatives where technically and economically feasible. These shifts require not only technology deployment but parallel investment in electricity grids, smart demand management, and storage solutions. Green hydrogen — produced via electrolysis powered by renewable electricity — is highlighted as an indispensable tool for decarbonizing sectors that cannot be directly electrified: long-distance heavy transport, high-temperature industrial heat, shipping, and aviation.
IRENA projects that by 2050, green hydrogen and its derivatives (including green ammonia and synthetic fuels) must account for a significant share of final energy in these hard-to-abate sectors. Scaling hydrogen requires rapid cost reductions driven by electrolyzer manufacturing scale-up and low-cost renewable electricity. The socio-economic dimension of the transition receives substantial attention.
IRENA projects that the 1.5°C pathway would create approximately 85 million additional energy transition-related jobs by 2030 compared to 2019 levels — including around 26.5 million in renewable energy and 58.3 million in efficiency, grid infrastructure, and hydrogen. These gains more than offset an estimated loss of 12 million jobs in fossil fuel and nuclear industries. However, the report acknowledges that these job transitions are not automatic and require active policies for worker retraining, regional economic diversification, and just transition frameworks — particularly in fossil fuel-dependent communities and nations.
The report concludes with a clear call to action directed at national governments, international financial institutions, and the private sector: the 1.5°C target remains technically and economically achievable, but it demands an immediate, comprehensive, and globally coordinated policy response. Current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and net-zero pledges are far from sufficient; structural policies must be enacted across all technological pathways to translate stated ambitions into actual deployment at the required scale and speed.